for that we're joined by nariman behravesh, chief economist at i.h.s. global insight, an economic and financial forecasting company. and kill huh, director of research at the pew center on the states. nariman bre raf esch we are talking about consequences tonight, they seem to move a few stecks forward, a few steps back, which are the consequences we think are are theoretical and which ones are rule? >> well, i think a default is theoretical in the sense that the treasury department would to the default on our interest payments. that would be a top priority. so i don't think there will even be a technical default. that's the least achely of all the scenarios. the most ikely if in fact we go past the august 2nd deadline is in fact slashing all kinds of spending including, one has to say, social security because it's a 40% gap between revenues and spending. that's a big gap. means a lot of programs would be cut that would drive the u.s. into a recession. i think that's a much more likely scenario than a default scenario. it just seems inconceivable that t